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Storm still en route to pass Marianas
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Posted on Feb 20 2019
The tropical disturbance that has been developing off the coast of Kosrae over the weekend is still en route to pass near the Marianas this weekend.
According to the National Weather Services in Tiyan, Guam, the disturbance is expected to turn west-northwest or northwest and pass southwest of Guam around Sunday.
This is seen to bring increased rain and gusty winds to the Marianas this weekend.
There remains the uncertainty of the exact strength of the system as it passes near the Marianas.
Models continue to indicate gradual development of the system through the week, but its development in the past 24 to 48 hours has been considerably slower than models have forecasted.
Acting governor Arnold I. Palacios is advising residents of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota to stay informed about the latest forecasts and statements that will be available through local media sources.
The tropical disturbance is now located about 1,210 miles southeast of Guam and remains the subject of a tropical cyclone formation alert by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
It is moving west at around 10 mph.
Strong trade winds north of the disturbance persist across Micronesia from Chuuk state eastward to the Marshall Islands.
Deep convection remains unevenly distributed around the circulation mainly to the west and north of the center.
The convection, however, is closer to the center than 24 hours ago and a narrow band of showers is found in the westerly flow south of the center. This circulation is expected to slowly become better organized in the next few days.
Models show that the circulation will continue westward through Thursday, then pass south of Chuuk around Wednesday or Thursday, before turning to the west-northwest or northwest and pass southwest of Guam.
