Running out of time

The following is premised on two things: that the CW program terminates in 2019 and that the U.S. retains indefinite control over our immigration.

The scheduled termination of the CW program will last a period of 12 months from January through December 2019. As the CW-1 visas expire, the workers and their CW=2 family members will depart the CNMI. Some may stay, some may even return with H2B visas but let’s not forget that this program does have a national cap and, as evidenced by the nearly 100-percent denial rate for Guam’s H2B applications, that program really is not the best option out there.

For now, the continued influx of investors and tourists primarily from China, along with the casino’s spending and taxes, will continue to drive our economy. This seemingly endless supply of cash has boosted consumer confidence in the entire CNMI. New cars, shoppers everywhere, pay raises, new developments, new constructions, and more as people are blowing their expendable income.

But how long will this last? As long as the trend continues. The CW program is a federal government program and the tourists from China can flock here as long as the U.S. government’s visa waiver continues to apply to the CNMI. The federal government controls our nonresident workers and our visitors. They control us.

So, what happens when the CW program draws down to zero? Well, thousands of people, both CW-1 and CW-2, will leave. These people contribute to our economy. They not only perform the broad spectrum of job categories—from the caregiver and construction to those that are performing critical work in not only the private sector but our government. Did I mention the projected as well as ongoing construction projects? And those in the casino and our hotels? These people pay taxes and perhaps, more importantly, they spend a lot of money in the CNMI. They are consumers like the rest of us.

For the record, our population numbers over 50,000. And based on the 2010 CNMI Census, there were more nonresidents than locals then and this is perhaps as true today as it was seven years ago.

Should the CNMI lose more than half of its population, the following will be inevitable. Our government’s revenue collections will be slashed. Businesses will lose employees and customers and they will either reduce their cost by reducing their staff, raise their prices to make up for their revenue losses, or they may close. Remember, all businesses have a certain amount of costs for their operations. Personnel salaries, insurance, taxes, leases, import and shipping costs, the list is long and costly. Regardless, it is the remaining consumers in the CNMI who will bear the brunt of such a catastrophe.

Construction projects will slow down and cease as those workers leave. New homes, businesses and hotel projects as well as our government’s many ongoing and scheduled projects will eventually stop. Tourist operations will dwindle as tourist operators are forced out. Hotels will find their operations crippled by staffing shortages and who knows, even that new casino and hotel in Garapan may face serious threats to its very survival.

In the end, as the government wakes up to a new reality, it will have to contend with how to not only pay its employees but how to fund their ever-increasing pay raises. Fiscal liability will be a hard lesson indeed. As for those in our government that knew of what can and may happen but choose to ignore it and, save for a whole lot of “kakko,” do as little as possible, the word accountability will be a hard pill to swallow. So are possible layoffs, shortened workweeks, payless paydays, and even bankruptcy protection. What about the current liabilities that are ballooning in interests?

There are, of course, options on and off the table. We can continue to beg the U.S. for a continuation and expansion of the CW program. We can ask to be exempted from the H2B fiasco facing Guam. We can ask that people who have been in the CNMI a certain number of years be granted CNMI residency, a green card or even U.S. citizenship. We might even bring in workers from the U.S. to fill in the void left by our outgoing CW workers, but seriously, we all know this to be but a dream. Try being an employer for a change and you’ll understand.

I think the only solution, the most viable one, is the return of our immigration control. At some point, the United States of America, our political partner for 40 years, has to come to terms with the fact that we are a self-governing entity. That we remain sovereign and our economic success, our very future, is at stake. We need continuity, we need to chart our own destiny and be afforded the opportunity to provide for a future for the generations of CNMI residents yet to be born.

So, let’s ask for the return of our immigration, that the provision under U.S. Public Law 110-229 which forfeited our immigration control, be either rescinded or held in abeyance for an indefinite period of time. Should that fail, we can demand the return of our immigration control or as a last resort, we can sue the federal government. Also, the 902 provision of our Covenant with the U.S. provides a door for the addressing and resolution of key issues but to date remains unopened. Why?

We are running out of time. We are running out of options. We need true leadership that can rise up to the challenge and not only talk the talk but do whatever is necessary for these islands and their people. In the meantime, 2019 is promising an event that will indeed change all of our lives.

Anyway, anything can happen and miracles do happen on occasion. Good luck.

Noel S. Reyes
Lower Dandan, Saipan