Rota on Typhoon Condition III

Residents of Rota are being advised to prepare as typhoon force winds brought by Typhoon Dolphin is expected to be felt on the island tomorrow.

As early as 3pm yesterday, Typhoon Condition III was declared for the municipality of Rota by Gov. Eloy S. Inos and was maintained through the 7pm update. Under this condition, 75 to 150 miles per hour winds could be felt in the area within 48 hours.

Special Assistant for Homeland Security and Emergency Management Marvin Seman briefs the media on the strength and possible effects of Typhoon Dolphin. The public is advised to prepare early as the typhoon’s track may change and move closer to the CNMI. (Frauleine S. Villanueva)

“We’ve already upgraded Rota to Typhoon Condition III and that’s because of the current track and forecast of the typhoon. Its general forecast is toward Guam and Rota,” Special Assistant for Homeland Security and Emergency Management Marvin Seman said.

Typhoon watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian as of yesterday and may be upgraded to typhoon warning today.

‘Cone of uncertainty’

As of press time, forecast track shows the center of the typhoon to go south of the CNMI and nearer Guam tomorrow. However, there is still a chance it will change direction.

The cone of uncertainty shows the typhoon’s possibility to move closer to Tinian and Saipan, hence the government’s advice for the public to prepare early.

“[Tinian and Saipan are] in typhoon watch because just in case it does make a northerly direction, we’re going to be in that area where we’re going to get just about typhoon force wind,” Seman said.

Preparations

As of HSEM‘s second bulletin, the center of Dolphin was located 695 miles east southeast of Rota. Its maximum sustained winds intensified to 85 miles per hour and was moving west at 12 miles per hour.

The typhoon is expected to continue to intensify and to shift its track back to the west-northwest direction.

“The main thing that the administration wants to put out to the community is they have to start making preparations just because of that uncertainty. It may change course,” Seman said.

“This storm is keeping us on our toes in terms of its forward movement, speed, its intensity and where it wants to go,” he added.

Aside from adequate food, water and fuel, Seman advises the public to assess their homes.

“If their homes are susceptible to wind damage and rain, flooding then they should start making plans for shelters. Shelters will be activated once we go in to condition II,” he said.

El Niño year

For Seman, the public must learn to practice early preparedness to mitigate disasters, especially now that tropical cyclones tend to be erratic and common because of El Niño.

“This storm is kind of off-season,” he said, “We’re going to have more frequent storms throughout the rest of the year.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center started issuing El Niño advisory last March, signifying that El Niño conditions were observed and are expected to continue.

As of their latest advisory in early April, “there is an approximately 70 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 60 percent chance it will last through autumn.”