Report: Climate change now impacting NMI

The CNMI is now being impacted by climate change, according to the U.S Global Change Research Program’s third National Climate Assessment.

The assessment report submitted to the White House states that “mounting threats to food and water security, infrastructure, health, and safety are expected to lead to increasing human migration, making it increasingly difficult for Pacific Islanders to sustain the region’s many unique customs, beliefs, and languages.”

The assessment also states that warmer oceans are leading to increased coral bleaching and disease outbreaks in coral reefs; freshwaters will be affected; some areas will have reduced rainfall; and sea levels will rise on all Pacific Islands, including the CNMI and Hawaii.

Delegate Gregorio Kilili C. Sablan (Ind-MP) said that coastal erosion and decreasing freshwater supplies are among the impacts to the CNMI and other Pacific Islands.

The report includes a 100-page document on climate change and its local impact on the CNMI as prepared by the CNMI Climate Change Working Group.

Changes to marine ecosystem

According to the USGCRP’s assessment, warmer oceans are leading to increased coral bleaching and disease outbreaks in coral reefs and ocean acidification will “strongly affect coral reef fish communities.”

USGCRP states that freshwater supplies are already limited and will become “more limited on many islands.”

“This is caused due to saltwater intrusion related with sea level rise, which will reduce the availability and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers, especially on low islands” USGCRP says.

According to USGCRP’s research, “future sea surface temperatures are projected to increase 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030, 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit by 2055, and 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2090.”

Bleaching events (as a result of higher ocean temperatures) can weaken or kill corals. The research shows that there have been incidences of coral bleaching that have been recorded in Micronesia, including the CNMI and American Samoa.

It also shows that ocean acidity has increased by about 30 percent since the preindustrial era and is projected to increase by 37 to 50 percent from recent levels by 2100.

“Curstose coralline algae, an inconspicuous but important component of reefs that help reefs to form and that act as critical surfaces on which other living things grow, are also expected to exhibit reduced growth and survival,” USGCRP says.

Freshwater availability

The study shows that in areas where precipitation does not increase, freshwater supplies will be adversely affected, as air temperature rises.

Different islands will be affected by different factors, including variability patterns that affect storms and precipitation like El Niño.

USGCRP states that most islands in the Pacific will have increased temperatures “coupled with decreased rainfall and increased drought [that] will reduce the amount of freshwater available for drinking and crop irrigation.”

USGCRP also states that the “extremes of El Niño and La Niña generally persist for 6 to 18 months and change phase roughly every 3 to 7 years.”

Increased stress

The USGCRP report states that projected climate changes will significantly alter the distribution and abundance of many native marine, terrestrial, and freshwater species in the Pacific Islands.

“The climate change will also cause an increased stress on native plants and animals. Increased temperatures especially in high-elevation ecosystems with increasing exposure to invasive species will also increase the risk of extinction,” USGCRP says.

USGCRP research shows that some, “perhaps many,” invasive plant species will have a competitive edge over native species as they disproportionately benefit from increased carbon dioxide, disturbances from extreme weather and climate events, and an ability to invade higher elevation habitats as climates warm.

Sea levels

Sea levels are rising and will increase coastal flooding and erosion, damaging coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and agriculture, and negatively affect tourism.

USGCRP states that global average sea levels have risen by about eight inches since 1900, with recent satellite observations indicating an “increased rate of rise over the past two decades,” a whopping 1.3-inch per decade.

On low Pacific Islands, critical public facilities and infrastructure as well as private commercial and residential property are especially vulnerable.

“Rising sea levels will escalate the threat to coastal structures and property groundwater reservoirs, harbor operations, airports, wastewater systems, shallow coral reefs, sea grass beds, intertidal flats and mangrove forests,” USGCRP says.

Threats to lives, cultures

Climate change will not only impact the environment but also threatens lives, livelihoods, and cultures.

“The climate changes will impact the threats to food and water security, infrastructure, and public health and safety will cause an increase in human migration from low to high elevations of the land,” USGCRP says.

USGCRP’s research shows that “all of the climate change impacts will have an impact on human communities in the Pacific Islands.”

“Because the Pacific Islands are most entirely dependent upon imported food, fuel, and material, the vulnerability of ports and airports to extreme events, sea level rise, and increasing wave heights are of great concern,” USGCRP says.

The CNMI’s climate variability is a possible hazard related to extreme climate events.