Meteorologist: Soudelor a rare typhoon

Typhoons that intensify as they are about to make landfall rarely happen, according to meteorologist Charles “Chip” Guard of the Weather Forecast Office in Guam. He was on Saipan for a media workshop yesterday at the CNMI Homeland Security & Emergency Management Office on Capital Hill.

Guard said that’s what happened when Typhoon Soudelor hit Saipan on Aug. 2 last year that caused major damage to homes and other infrastructures. “Occasionally, you will have storms that would intensify right at your backdoor.”

“You are not going to be as accurate as you like and rarely does the Typhoon Warning Center miss the intensity of the storm by that much. But when they start to rapidly intensify right at your backdoor, that’s where the problem are,” he added.

Guard, a former Joint Typhoon Weather Center director in Hawaii, said it was a good thing that no one died despite Soudelor’s intensity. “It was a welcome news that nobody was killed and only a few were hurt. In essence, the warning system works.”

The same thing happened in Guam back in 1992, he said, when Typhoon Omar intensified as it neared landfall. “Typhoon Omar did the same thing, right in the middle of the night. That’s the problem, a lot of times they happen in the middle of the night and catch people by surprise.”

“A lot of people thought it [Soudelor] was so small. We didn’t realize it was that small. Saipan and Tinian are always in a typhoon warning, they should have been prepared for every typhoon. No question about it, they haven’t seen a strong typhoon like that since Kim in 1986.”

He said that no matter the intensity of a typhoon, everyone should be prepared. “There’s no question [Soudelor] was under forecast in terms of intensity. But it was forecast to be a typhoon. People should have been prepared for a typhoon.”

Guard added that they expect several more storms to pass by the Marianas until December, reminding people to be always prepared. “You have to keep in mind, this is one of the few places in the world where you can have a typhoon any time of the year. We are in a beautiful place but we also have to live with [typhoons].”

Although storm surges also happen here in the Marianas, it is not like that in the mainland. “Sure we also get storm surges but not like in the States where it is more on wave action. Here on Saipan, the east side of the island comes rapidly.”

“Kagman is high enough not to experience it. The west side like in Tanapag, San Roque, and San Antonio have a higher risk. Winds can still regenerate the waves in the lagoon. That’s why hotels are set back to prevent storm surges but you can still get inundation and coastal flooding.”