Still strategically strategic

The world is finally starting to wake up to the inevitability of an Asian arms race, and Saipan’s corner of the world is going to see a lot of changes. Sure, Uncle Sam’s military build up in Guam is old, or at least established, news, but it’s the Asian nations themselves that are going to shake things up. Just you watch.

This week has given us a taste of things to come. Here’s a headline from the U.K. Telegraph, April 20: “Japan ‘should develop nuclear weapons’ to counter North Korea threat.”

Here’s the nut graf: “Shoichi Nakagawa, former finance minister, suggested that Japan should examine the possibility of defending itself from potential attacks from North Korea by obtaining nuclear weapons.”

This issue might not have real traction now (please spare me any comments on Japan’s constitutional nuances, that’s not the issue I’m addressing today) but Asia in a few years is going to be a whole new game, and Japan might have a lot more incentive to bulk up militarily.

As for China, well, let’s grab a random headline. They’re not hard to find. Here’s the lead from an April 17 piece on the BBC’s web site:” China is planning to boost the size and sophistication of its naval power, the head of the Chinese navy told state news agency Xinhua.”

As always, “news” is mere trivia that can only hint at more profound truths. One big issue behind Asia’s gig is that the economic decline of the U.S. is going to leave one heck of a strategic vacuum in Asia, since a military marches on its wallet. And China’s rise is too obvious to mention.

Therefore, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines, to name a few players, will be looking at a whole new game. Alliances with the U.S. have, for entire generations now, been built on the assumption that Uncle Sam is the biggest guy in the block. But when just one ally openly flouts that assumption, it will be like yanking a brick out of an old wall. The industrial nations can quite quickly arm themselves, and with nukes, no less, and they’ll have the means to deliver them, too. The Philippines, for its part, could serve as a mighty interesting flash point if east and west are going to throw off some sparks, and there is a lot more than meets the eye on this.

When alliances start to change, weaken, shift, or otherwise get wacky, then Guam is going to be more important than ever to Uncle Sam, and, reciprocally, more important than ever to any rivals to Uncle Sam. Ditto, one way or the other for the Commonwealth.

You and I haven’t been blindsided by this. In my July 27, 2007, column (“Strategically strategic”) I said: “As the world’s economic center of gravity continues to shift toward industrial Asia, the Commonwealth is going to find itself on one flank of the inevitable Asian arms race. We are, to use a term much in vogue in the CNMI, in a ‘strategic’ location. That’s a happy coincidence, actually, given that ‘strategic’ just happened to be in fashion locally.”

I’ll link to that column at SaipanBlog.com, because this issue isn’t going away. It will keep building, generally invisibly, as news stories only occasionally break the surface.

Other than keeping generally aware of the world’s changing winds, what can Saipan do? Pretty much nothing. An Asian arms race, or the specter thereof, certainly doesn’t change the fact that tourism in the Commonwealth’s only intrinsically competitive industry. Tourists are still going to be tourists, regardless of how many cruisers or missiles their home countries are making.

Meanwhile, it may pay to keep an eye on the latest directions of military money going to the Marianas, since ancillary industries can grow around it. See troops in garrison, and you’ll also see opportunities in restaurants, taverns, car sales, barber shops, dry cleaners, and so on; in this vein, for example, I’ve got pals who are doing quite well in Guam right now. Those who fled the CNMI’s meltdown a decade ago (some of whom were my clients) hit Guam at just the right time.

We’re at the transition point where economic changes are going to start producing military changes. I’m qualified to delve into both realms, and I’ll continue doing just that on your behalf. So stay tuned, because we will live in interesting times.