See? I told you so!

As the hysteria over the U.S. economy, and its moribund stock market, flows through headlines, here’s a fact for you: I warned you about this gig over five years ago.

So don’t tell me you’re not getting your money’s worth out of the Saipan Tribune.

On Feb. 13, 2004, my column was titled “Stocks? No way, dude!”

I noted: “I’d sooner put my money on the Blackjack tables” than buy stocks. I wasn’t telling you what to do; that’s not my style, and I don’t give investment advice. I was just giving you my own economic take on things.

Anyway, when I wrote that piece, the Dow was at about 10,737. Now it’s at 7,271, near a 12-year low.

But that stuff is just an aside. The real issue here is economics. And, also in my Feb. 13, 2004, piece, I highlighted the fundamental issue: Toxic U.S. debt.

Yeah, it’s all the buzz now, but I was on the case way back then. I said: “There’s a huge debt crisis brewing in the U.S. of A., a ticking time bomb that may blow the entire world economy into smithereens…”

Got that? Over five years ago. Ha! For all the grief that small, independent newspapers get, I’d like to see a bigger paper that carried a prediction to rival this one.

Let’s clear the air here: The only way to see if an economist measures up is to test his published predictions. That’s the whole point of economics. I wouldn’t want a weatherman who would only “explain” storms, after the fact, that he didn’t predict, would you?

Anyway, back to the big picture, having seen the U.S. mainland situation shaping up over five years ago, I have to admit that the hysteria in the American press, and the fear rippling through the public, is, for all the notional drama, boring. Nothing can change what has happened; that debt bomb had its roots in 2001 or so. All the arm-waving and shouting is spilt milk syndrome writ large. I don’t even read it or follow it. It doesn’t matter who gets a trillion here, or a few hundred billion there. What matters is why the credit bubble was built in the first place, and those kinds of discussions don’t tickle the public interest, so you’re not likely to hear them.

As far as the CNMI’s tourism markets are concerned, sure, Asia is getting whacked by the financial ripples, but, again, that was easy to see coming. But that’s not the issue. The issue is fundamental productive capacity, and the Asian economies that have free enough markets, and small enough debts, will probably be able to roll with the punches. That’s going to be the big story of the coming years, and I’ll be on the case. There’s a lot of opportunity in this gig, and some folks on Saipan will be in good positions to take advantage of that action. It will take a few years, or maybe even a decade, for this to sort itself out.

In the meantime, though, anything, and I mean anything at all, can happen. The reason is that so many trillions of dollars are being thrown around that they will distort markets in ways that can’t be entirely foreseen. When credit markets are being hit with hammers, you can’t tell which way the shards will fall. But I can assure you they’ll be sharp. Again, I don’t sweat these details; I just avoid the whole mess entirely. You won’t find me taking wild rides on the back of the liquidity surges and shortages; there’s too much randomness. Markets will take wild rides unconnected to economic fundamentals.

I can’t resist saying it again: Thanks to the Saipan Tribune’s independent voice, you had five years’ warning for the biggest economic story since the Great Depression.