TEOTWAWKI syndrome

“TEOTWAWKI” looks like the name of some sort of Polynesian god, but it’s merely a handy abbreviation for paranoia that is very un-tropical in origins. No, “The End Of The World As We Know It” isn’t a fashionable topic (yet) on Saipan, but we get the echoes from the West, where it’s cool to indulge worries that the world is doomed.

I wouldn’t really bring this up, except that I know there’s enough legitimate gloom on Saipan. There’s nothing to be gained by adding TEOTWAWKI syndrome to the mix.

After all, the world (or that part of it that’s behaving itself) is doing better every year, particularly Asia.

Now, it’s true, of course, that the world’s largest economy (the U.S., of course) is facing a fundamental fall from economic grace. And, it’s also true that the toxic American debt and other securities will poison many of the globe’s economies. And, yes, a global recession is probably very likely. And, moreover, I’ll admit I can’t guarantee that the U.S. problems won’t trigger some cascading series of global credit bombs. And, on a really worrisome note, it’s possible, of course, that some wacky oil crisis might screw up everything. So I’m not smug about the world’s future.

But I am still optimistic. And if a global recession helps purge the bad debt from the system, then it’s probably a blessing in the long run anyway.

I travel a lot. I get to interact with real people doing real work. And it seems to me that the advanced world is still advancing. I hear optimism. I see optimism. Yes, lately, it’s often guarded optimism in may cases, but it’s still optimism. And I mean the intelligent optimism of the intrinsically productive, not the delusional optimism of the misguided.

After all, business, internationally, is easier to do now than at any time that I can remember. Hey, it’s not too early to start thinking about Thanksgiving, so here’s a list of things that I think about:

1). Communications technology lets anyone communicate with the entire world for essentially free. Heck, you can use Yahoo Messenger to video conference with your notebook computer from Shirley’s while you sip your coffee. That was the stuff of science fiction not too long ago.

2). Financial services flow across borders efficiently. You and I can remit, or receive money, internationally, with ease.

3). Currency markets are highly efficient. And you don’t have to be rich or sophisticated to use them to your advantage.

4). Trade barriers, from what I see (I don’t do fancy studies of this), are lower than they used to be a decade ago.

5). Shipping and courier services are getting better all the time.

6). Travel is easier than ever in most places; just wave a credit card, and you can pretty much go anywhere you want in comfort. Can you name an era with better and cheaper travel? No.

Overall, smart people with some degree of motivation have never had it better. I know, for example, people in the Philippines who are no longer at the mercy of their national economy; thanks to the Internet, they simply telecommute internationally, earning three times what they’d otherwise make. That’s not just a windfall for them; it’s a windfall for their clients or employers, too. I hope this trend continues. Why wouldn’t it?

The end-of-the-world talk emanates from the West, which is facing gloomy times. Some sense doom because of their economic circumstances; they were told they could consume more than they produce, a folly that does not go unpunished. Others indulge in apocalyptic fantasies. And still others mine the world’s headlines to find crusades or grievances to attach themselves to. Add all this up, and there’s a lot of TEOTWAWKI talk.

Well, Saipan has enough worries of its own. Don’t make things worse by catching a dose of TEOTWAWKI syndrome, it will cause you to overlook the good opportunities out there.