The CNMI’s last, best hope: A call for action

Most know me as that guy who just keeps on writing stuff about CUC—in fact, for over four years, I have been “on their back.” Some may ask; “Why doesn’t he just give up already?” The answer is simple; because I care, and that leads me to the reason for this letter; kind of a “last” call for action and it’s all based on last Thursday nights’ CBS News. You see, the lead in-depth story was a shocker: “Gas to reach $7 per gallon” screamed the headlines. Now that woke me up.

According to CBS, industry analysts now report that crude oil prices will breach $200 per barrel by 2010, a mere 18 months. What does that mean for the CNMI? For one thing $200 per bbl in the U.S. roughly translates to $230-$240 per bbl in the CNMI, so we will be paying at least between $8 and $9 per gallon for gas and electricity will hover around eighty cents ($0.80) per kwh—that is if the power plant is still operating.

What kind of effect will we fall prey to? Well, try this: no more frozen or chilled foods. Markets won’t be able to afford the high cost of coolers, so all food will be fresh, canned or preserved. Markets will be “open-air” as buildings can’t be cooled. Stores will open only during daylight, maybe only three days a week. Most small businesses will simply close, larger ones cut back and new ones won’t exist. Sorry, we won’t need any guest workers, so immigration is moot. How will you react when you discover that virtually everything you do depends on electricity, and you can’t afford any more this month? What if CUC can only “turn on” your area four hours a day?

That’s only a few examples of things to come. Make no mistake, it could be even worse unless something is done now. Here is my own personal call for action:

The very first thing everybody must do is recognize the fact that the CNMI has only one problem. You think Pew Trust will matter? You think the fate of municipal councils will matter? You think who gets appointed to what will matter? You think a bill re-naming a street no one ever heard of will matter? You think federalization of immigration will matter? Here’s a news flash: It won’t! Our elected leaders have proven themselves to be completely ineffective—and sometimes even inept—seemingly embroiled in everyday minutiae used to mask their failings or inabilities or unwillingness to cope with real life-threatening conditions.

At one time, the Governor wanted to cover Saipan with windmills, and then he was off to Pagan to ship in geothermal power. Now he’s off to who knows where for who knows what. No one on his staff has been any better, using “spin” to promise a coming miracle as if the governor were Moses and we now reside on Mt. Sinai waiting for the burning bush to speak, and legislators, though just beginning to wake up, are still running around chasing tails without direction. These problems are, at least in part, the result of years of hunger for notoriety, power and greed born of familial politics instead of professional expertise, advice or legitimate research; and always willing to cater to the sometimes whimsical desires of powerful families with vested interests and political “connections.”

The rest of the world is facing similar problems too. It’s high time we quit looking over our shoulders and pointing the finger of wrath at “garments,” they did it; “JAL or Continental,” they did it; “the world oil market,” they did it; “federalization of immigration,” they did it. Maybe they did—so what? When they do it to the rest of the world, the rest of the world acts and adjusts—we are not responding, preferring instead to play the poor victim. Well, I’m tired of being the victim.

The second thing to do is to round up a small (3-5 only) “commission” of the finest minds we can find in (or out of) the CNMI. No politicians, no G.O.B.’s (Good Ol’ Boys), no “scientists” versed in a single field, no “consultants”; just the best, most well-educated people available in (or out of) the CNMI. Task them to formulate, within 60 days, and pursue a plan for the energy future of each island. More on that later.

Next, the Legislature must dissolve CUC in its entirety. You think that can’t be done? Think again. At the same time, the Legislature must create new and independent (of each other) power and water companies on each island subject only to rate and service oversight by the PUC. Of course, there will have to be a “transition” period while CUC actually disappears and the “new” systems take over. When I say dissolve CUC, I mean all of it: loans, notes, debts, facilities, everything except the power and water distribution system on each island. Get this through your head, Mr. Muña: It has no value!

The bungling and complete idiocy of previous and current attempts at “privatization” is agonizingly clear as far too many try to preserve their piece of the pie or add details of CNMI minutiae so blatantly absurd that no reasonably capable Independent Power Producer would give a second look—and so reputations are established. We have established that reputation and now we need a “clean” approach—hand’s off!

So, what will our “commission of 3-5” look at and pursue to invitation? We already know the problem—no studies needed. This, my friends, in my humble view, is what is left for the CNMI:

1. Forget “wind power”. The rule is simple and well established: you cannot utilize a nature-dependent power source as the primary load. It’s extremely costly and not as environmentally friendly as some would have you believe. Relegate wind to its rightful position: that of a private, supplemental source for individuals or small businesses through an active system of net-metering.

2. Forget “solar”. For the same reasons and purposes as wind.

3. Forget continued reliance on “oil”. Duh! This is a no-brainer, no matter how you “mitigate” it!

4. Forget “geothermal”. It is extremely costly to discover, test, evaluate and open a new geothermal field—and takes years, and you gotta pay for it yourself even if it turns out to be a dry hole! To even think of getting geothermal power brought by undersea cable from a distant point to the people in such a small market is folly at best.

5. Forget “ocean wave/tidal energy.” It’s still “pie-in-the-sky” (sorry, Tim, hook your dreams to something else)—many years from real production and as yet unable to overcome the battering forces of ocean waves greater than 35-40 feet (think small typhoon). It occupies huge ocean surfaces for small output.

6. Forget “biomass.” There just isn’t enough space in all the CNMI together to produce sufficient “fuel.”

7. Forget “garbage to power” conversion. Again, there just isn’t sufficient volume of “fuel”, unless, however, you want to import somebody else’s garbage (Ugh! The very thought!).

8. To Be Determined: “Coal.” Coal was on my list of real possibilities—until recently. Why not now? Again this past week, two CBS News reports indicated: a) sharp rises in the price of coal due to demand and, b) 63 newly planned coal plants in the U.S. have been cancelled because the scientific community just announced that it has been unable to efficiently or effectively “capture” the huge amounts of CO2 gas emissions from the burning of coal. New restrictions on such emissions, the single number one contributor to global climate change, may soon make new coal plants untenable unless and until new technology figures it out—years away. But, I still believe we should at least give coal a chance to compare with the next three.

Thus, I believe we are left with three very realistic and promising possibilities:

9. “Natural Gas.” Facilities run by natural gas are clean, easy to construct and enjoy rapid installation. Their gas turbines produce clean power efficiently and at very reasonable rates (5 to 8 cents per kwh). Natural gas is an abundant and clean fuel found worldwide and shipment and storage of liquefied natural gas should not present large problems. Excess imported natural gas can be used in the home to run clean and cheap appliances and other industrial uses, thus spreading the cost of import. A reliable IPP would readily invest in such a venture if not encumbered by political skeletons of past CNMI blundering.

10. “Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion” or OTEC. Here is a system that has shown proven results over 20 years or more. First envisioned in 1975, only two sites in the world were considered for the initial tests: a) Hawaii (who won the bid) and, b) Saipan. Although considered the best choice, Saipan lost this opportunity through political blundering. This system now has the capacity to be just what we need. It is reliable, exceptionally clean, well suited to our area, relatively easy and inexpensive to install and available for rapid installation. It also carries with it even greater “side” benefits for agricultural and aquaculture development. Vast quantities of temperate climate fish, algae, and land based crops can be grown in tropical settings and large quantities of pure, clean fresh water can be salvaged. There is a major IPP (in Hawaii) just waiting for a chance to prove itself through investment in the CNMI.

11. “Nuclear.” Just coming into its own and born of proven technological know-how, the newest generation IV, small, passive, modular plants were developed explicitly for markets like the CNMI. They are the safest and cheapest of all modern power sources. They use no indigenous natural resources and emit nothing. Safety is built in by the laws of physics—not man-made controls. There is also a great “side” benefit in that such plants can easily be outfitted to produce large quantities of clean, cheap hydrogen gas, which in turn, also produces large quantities of clean fresh water. Hydrogen will be the next generation of “fuel” that moves our transportation systems. Already Honda and Mercedes have placed over 1,000 experimental hydrogen driven personal cars on the streets of the U.S. Under current production techniques, hydrogen gas is still expensive, and not readily available, at a cost comparison to gasoline of about $3.50 per gallon. But Generation IV nuclear plants can lower that cost to only about 40 cents per gallon. There are at least two IPPs ready and willing to invest in such a plant in the CNMI.

I truly believe that one, two or all three of these technologies can be developed and installed in the CNMI with little or no “up-front” cost to the CNMI and in time to prevent our collapse from the onslaught that has manifested itself and will continue to erode our very existence. I believe Mr. Muña is wrong when he says changing our power system requires a lot of capital we don’t have. The key to real success is in using “somebody else’s” money—and you can’t do that with a blundering, inept, corrupted and meddlesome political system dictating the terms.

I sincerely hope that our “leaders” won’t interpret this as some insufferable “outsider” trying to tell them what to do. It is merely my suggestions based on four years of observations, pleadings, research and a deep abiding desire to do the right thing. This is my “call to action” and a firm plea as the last, best hope for the CNMI.