‘Volcanic ash a threat to aircraft passing Marianas’

The U.S. Geological Survey underscored the importance of monitoring volcanoes, citing that volcanic ash poses a threat to aircraft that regularly pass the Marianas region.

Dr. James E. Quick, coordinator for the USGS volcano hazards program, said that volcanic ash is a significant threat because approximately 100 aircraft carrying 10,000 passengers per day pass through the airspace of the Marianas.

“These aircraft and the people onboard them are at risk because a jet aircraft flying into a cloud of volcanic ash can be severely damaged,” Quick said, adding that ash may cause damage to electronic equipment.

Most importantly, volcanic ash, if it goes into the engine of an aircraft, may cause melting and lead to engine failure, said Quick, who arrived on Saipan last week with three other visiting USGS geologists.

Quick mentioned three reported cases of 747s losing power in all four engines and falling thousands of feet before regaining power and avoiding a crash.

“It is a significant problems taken very seriously by the aircraft industry and the pilot association,” he said.

Quick said the issue was the topic of a U.S. Senate hearing on March 16, 2006 in which testimony was given by the airline pilot association, the University of Alaska, and the USGS.

The volcano hazards program coordinator said it was discussed at that hearing the need to monitor volcanoes in order to provide the earliest possible warning to pilots so they can avoid ash clouds and damage to the aircraft.

Quick said USGS co-sponsored a workshop with the CNMI Emergency Management Office in 2005 to develop a response plan for volcanic ash.

“The workshop that we had on Saipan last year produced a plan that remains to be signed. It should be signed very shortly,” he said.

Such plan, the coordinator said, is being used now and serves as a roadmap for the interactions of the USGS, the National Weather Service, EMO and other agencies.

Also last year, he said, USGS made progress on the volcanic hazard assessment of Pagan Island by completing a geologic method north of Pagan.

“The reason is important is because the behavior of volcanoes is variable, just like the behavior of people. They have different personalities,” Quick said.

He explained that the secret to understanding the activity or behavior of a volcano is by looking at its geological past.

“So if you look at the record, from that we can tell if a volcano is prone to explosive eruption, how frequently and so on,” Quick said.

USGS, he said, also completed a preliminary numerical analysis of possible tsunami in the Marianas.

“And the good news is that the preliminary results indicated that large tsunamis are seen to be unlikely in the Marianas region,” he said.

For 2006, Quick said, the USGS has allocated a budget to complete the field work on volcanic hazards assessment of Pagan.

“We also budgeted for improvement of the monitoring network on Anatahan,” he said.

USGS, he added, has pledged to purchase for shipment to Saipan monitoring equipment to be used in observing Pagan.