Zoom-zoom economics

Where would Saipan be without transportation? OK, it would still be geographically fixed at 145 degrees east longitude and 15 degrees north latitude…but it wouldn’t even be on the economic map.

The garment industry wouldn’t exist if it couldn’t ship in its materials and ship out its wares. The tourism industry wouldn’t be a tourism industry without airliners to haul the bodies.

And even our health food industry couldn’t survive without our containers of Spam, Budweiser, and Pringles. Furthermore, how fast would your car go without the fuel that’s shipped in? Yikes, we’ve got transpiration depending on transportation! Yep, the Commonwealth would be a pretty grim proposition without stuff that flies and floats and rolls.

And the islands aren’t the only place. Everyone has heard of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, which is just called the “Dow” for short, but the Dow Jones Transportation Index is closely followed by wonks who are trying to see the future. Transportation is a “leading indicator” of an economy’s activity. And thus I will note, with great surprise, that Dow’s transportation index is up 26.1 percent for the year 2004 (as of yesterday morning). If you’re looking for something to be optimistic about, well, there it is…but that jump just proves to me that the world really has gone crazy.

My office pals used to think I’m crazy when I would hit the bricks and survey cab drivers and other such folks when I was doing certain kinds of economic forecasts for the tourism industry. Hey, any excuse to take a nice stroll in Garapan! Besides, cab drivers have a far greater understanding of tourism activity than most of our desk-bound nitwits do. And I’ve surveyed many a boat captain. And many a helicopter pilot. And many an airline pilot. Which is kind of fun anyway. In typical male fashion, I’m totally enthralled by any machinery that moves. Especially jets. “Zoom-Zoom.” Some kids grow out of that. I never did.

Good thing that I didn’t. When it comes to economics, transportation is the best possible part of the real world to get your hands on. Besides, the transportation industry is a lot more legitimate than the economics field, I’m ashamed to admit. At least drivers of boats and planes and all the rest of it need to have a license. I wish they’d license economists after administering a competence test, wouldn’t that be cool?

I once met a chiropractor whose card was emblazoned with this motto: “Movement is life.” It’s just as true for economies as it is for people. The Commonwealth’s economic health will match that of its transportation industry. Hey, if you were looking for an excuse to take a stroll in Garapan or drink some brews with mariners telling their sea-stories, I think you just found one.

* * *

From my family to yours, have a very Merry Christmas. The New Year will have a lot of promise for the Commonwealth, and I foresee great opportunities in 2005.

Speaking of opportunity, I do have a housekeeping note: I’ll have the dubious honor of living in hotel rooms for a number of weeks as I tackle a project. I shall mark the New Year with some bad restaurant food and a cup of decaf. If I owe you an e-mail, please be patient, I’ll probably be trying to figure out what time zone I’m in or why the Internet won’t connect when I plug my computer into the light socket. Maybe movement is life, but it’s sure confusing sometimes.

(Ed Stephens, Jr. is an economist and columnist for the Saipan Tribune. Ed4Saipan@yahoo.com)