Wind, sun, oil…and beer

Hopefully you’re stocking up on beer for the July 4th weekend, but don’t pop any champagne corks just because oil prices have lulled on international markets. In the long run, oil will go up, not down, and the Commonwealth is going to depend on fossil fuels for electrical generation for the foreseeable future.

And “fossil” is a dandy term, since it does seem a bit crude and old-fashioned to burn scarce and dwindling resources in order to air condition poorly-insulated concrete homes 24 hours a day. So “green” energy such as solar power or wind power is a mighty tempting thing to contemplate. But, like many temptations, this isn’t one you’d want to bring home to Momma, at least if Momma is an energy analyst.

Sunshine is one thing that Saipan has an abundance of. Solar electricity via “photovoltaic” technology is surely more refined than it was a decade ago when I last studied it, but costs back then were about ten times higher than conventional energy, and I’ve seen no evidence that things have changed substantially enough to make a difference. In sum: Solar is too expensive for Saipan, and anyone who says otherwise had better have hard financial data to prove their case.

Remember this: Be it from wind or be it from sunshine, you can’t store electricity in meaningful quantities. And since the very concept of electricity is constant availability, wind or solar doesn’t replace the need for conventional “installed capacity.” In other words, you still need a normal power plant, especially in an island context where buying power from a neighboring state isn’t exactly an option.

Wind energy is an established player and a proven technology in some parts of the world, and, yes, in the right situations, it can produce power at a reasonable cost. I have worked in this industry and it is here to stay, but “here” won’t include “Saipan.” For one thing, Saipan just doesn’t have strong enough winds to make the gig worthwhile. For another thing, wind farms occupy a lot of land, and land is scarce in Saipan; I suppose you could actually put an array of Wind Turbine Generators up in the lagoon…but why veer into academic conjecture, it merely bores me.

So can we do anything to mitigate Saipan’s necessary evil of fossil fuel gluttony? I think so. There’s no reason that private sector generators of green energy, be it wind or solar, can’t be allowed to send their power out to the grid and get paid for it. If some guy wants to install $50,000 worth of solar panels on his roof and sell off the excess electricity until a typhoon blows the whole array to Tarawa, why not? In fact, there’s no reason that you could not legally compel the utility to purchase that energy. However…this has to be done the right way, not the wrong way, and now is not the time to open this can of worms. Later, maybe. Now, no.

Meanwhile, I still recall an innovative thinker who showed me his plans to harness the tides and the waves to produce electricity. I didn’t see any precise calculations, but the idea is mondo cool and I’d love to see it studied in detail. If anyone has any numbers I’d like to peruse them.

For the time being, then, Saipan, like most of the rest of the world, is dependent on conventional power plant technology. It’s not rocket science, but there are huge pitfalls to mismanagement or funny business; recall the billions of dollars of blundering and boondoggles that recently plagued the state of California. California’s famously large economy could absorb such a disaster. Saipan’s infamously dinky economy cannot.

Yes indeed, trade winds and tropical sun are great stuff, but they won’t solve our electricity problems. So enjoy your beer during the 4th…but save the champagne for later.

(Ed Stephens, Jr. is an economist and columnist for the Saipan Tribune. Ed4Saipan@yahoo.com)