Analysis: What went wrong , what went right

The result of the midterm election is the stunning upset and defeat of formidable incumbent Senator Juan P. Tenorio (Morgen) by newcomer Ramon S. Guerrero (Kumoi) by a margin of about 485 votes. And even with the subsequent arrival of absentee ballots, there won’t be any change in this race.

What may have gone wrong in this contest? There’s the filial feud that ballooned into a public mudslinging among and between the Guerreros, Pangelinan and Tenorios. Morgen and Kumoi are actually very close cousins, but this filial affinity didn’t prevent the exposure of filial dirty laundry best left and confined in the closet.
It became public fodder.

For political observers, however, Morgen’s defeat is itself a public statement of frustration and anger from disgruntled republicans and democrats who have bolted traditional political associations to reveal their true sentiments of the lack of job opportunities for loyal GOP followers and the displacement of the ignorant (democrats) who had no inkling of the politics of change in administration. For this group, the only thing that matters is the means to bring home the bacon. Most are still jobless alongside loyal GOP followers. They can’t bring home the bacon.

This is further fueled by the vicious assaults of the Asian crisis that substantially reduced jobs in both sectors. Such job scarcity was triggered by the closure of over 2,000 businesses and the obvious complacency of those at the helm to proactively seek rebooting the local economy. Morgen has suffered an unearned punishment by way of defeat not from what the GOP did, but what it didn’t do to help the downtrodden in these hard economic times.

But the sound defeat of its lower house political trade horses is an indication that the Reform Party just doesn’t have the village base to secure any of the seats for the House of Representatives. If anything, its entry into both the Precinct I and IV race did some damage to incumbents. It’s the thing that happens when political “mischiefs” are in the race. It’s a denial of votes that should have gone to incumbents.

The democrats came back trailblazing like Thor, the king of lightning and thunder, reclaiming what is its very stronghold–Precinct I. The GOP gave it its faint shot riddled with disorganization and lack of solidarity from day one. But the victors may find their joy short-lived two years from now. In other words, it would involve some payback time which would only play into the hands of the democrats. But it’s a stunning Democratic Party gain reasserting that it holds the key to the southern community.

The Precinct II contest turned out as expected. The two incumbents are back in their warm and comfortable seat. But the joys of victory may be thinning out when measured against grassroots sentiments of neglect some of which are legitimate community concerns. But leave it be. The voters in that precinct still prefer the true and proven.

Precinct III had some pleasant and unpleasant surprises. It’s a five to one margin in favor of the GOP. Incumbent Melvin Faisao didn’t make it. Independent incumbent Rep. Malua Peter retained her seat. Incumbent Rep. Timmo Olopai didn’t quite turn the corner and so he won’t be answering the roll call next January. Former Speaker Ben “Fitial Is Back!” The democrats need to reassess where it has gone wrong a riddle that isn’t too difficult to resolve. The Reform’s lone political trade horse was lost in the pack trailing way behind but deserves some accolades for giving it his best.

The results of the race in Precinct IV also turned out as expected, a one-to-one divide between GOP newcomer Tomas Pangelinan and incumbent Rep. Dino Jones.

The one factor that may have played a role in the recently concluded race is the decision by the Board of Elections to prohibit candidates and supporters from setting up camps within 100 of polling places. This allowed for voters to enter fences without being pressured to carry illegal name cards into the polling booth. It was a relief for voters all the way around who, for the first time, didn’t have to put up with last minute insults.

If anything, the democratic gain is a serious indication that it has started putting its house together in order to gain more political clout. For the GOP, this victory could just as well be the last one to savor as it begins sifting through a thick maze up ahead or the gubernatorial race in 2001. It may find disunity a major factor to endure as it attempts to field its next gubernatorial tandem.

The die is cast, let’s move on to the myriad of substantive issues at hand. Such will require that you hang your political hat in the reception area of our appropriate chamber in that the issue warrants sober policy review. Let’s move on in unison.