‘Pagan will definitely erupt in the future’

Pagan is an active volcano that will definitely erupt in the future, according to U.S. Geological Survey volcano hazards program coordinator Dr. James E. Quick.

Quick pointed out that there is no question that Pagan will erupt in the future and that preliminary results indicate it had erupted explosively as well in the past.

But the USGS believes that a volcano that is properly monitored is a safe volcano to settle on, provided there is a response plan in place so people can be evacuated fast, Quick said during a recent presentation at the Emergency Management Office.

“Properly monitored means there should be sufficient time for the people to execute that plan. So these are two components—it’s having the monitoring in placed and a plan so that you can respond when it [volcano] erupts,” he said.

Asked whether people can live and put up businesses on Pagan, Quick said USGS can provide information on the hazards that are likely to occur, but it is the people who can make policy decisions on what sort of investment can and should be established on the island.

The coordinator said that explosive eruption is guaranteed to produce a significant amount of destruction if the properties are on the volcano’s path.

The idea is, whatever is built there can ultimately be possibly destroyed by another eruption, he said.

Quick cited the case of the Augustine volcano, one of the most eruptive volcanoes in Alaska. He stated they had identified that there was significant unrest of the Augustine volcano in the late fall.

“[We] were watching that closely in early December so we had basically forecasted the possibility of an eruption of Augustine weeks in advance of the event itself,” he said.

Quick also estimated that USGS needs $1 million a year if a volcano observatory is established on Saipan.

“As the network grows there will be an increasing stream of data that needs to be analyzed. So initially what we would do is probably put a scientist in charge of a Marianas volcano observatory who would still be based in the U.S. mainland or in Hawaii,” he said.

Quick said that, as the network is completed and it is necessary to have somebody based on Saipan permanently, the staff for this observatory will include USGS and EMO personnel.