Pollster: Race now between Ben, Heinz but BB may also have edge

Being the incumbent candidate may give Gov. Juan N. Babauta an edge with the absentee votes, according to an election expert from the University of Guam.

According to UoG professor Ron McNinch, the governor still has a chance for reelection although the race now appears to be between Speaker Benigno R. Fitial and Rep. Heinz Hofschneider.

McNinch’s class, which conducted an exit poll on Election Day, correctly predicted a close race between the three candidates, as well as the result of the elections for Saipan mayor and Saipan senator.

In predicting the outcome of the absentee voting, one needs to consider the reason absentee voters reside outside of the CNMI, McNinch said. He identified these reasons as military service, education, and health care.

“These reasons do not affect the incumbent as much as the economy might. The economy was a dominant issue for Saipan and Rota, while transportation was the critical issue for Tinian,” McNinch said in an email.

This difference between voter views within the CNMI and voters who live elsewhere could swing the votes in Babauta’s favor, he said.

“Still, it would have to be a significant proportion of the absentee votes to be successful in this race,” McNinch added.

The UoG professor, who served as Guam’s election commissioner from 2000 to 2002, also observed that Fitial or Hofschneider may benefit if a high proportion of the absentee votes go to the fourth candidate, former governor Froilan Tenorio.

Scenario

McNinch also provided an analysis assuming that at least 80 percent of the estimated 1,500 absentee ballots cast votes and that each candidate received at least 15 percent of the 1,200 possible votes.

Adding 180 votes to each candidate’s current number of votes, McNinch came up with an adjusted total of 3,677 votes for Fitial; 3,551 votes for Hofschneider; 3,408 votes for Babauta; and 2,436 for Tenorio.

According to McNinch, Hofschneider needs to gain at least 127 votes out of the 480 remaining votes to meet Fitial’s percentage and exceed it by one vote.

This represents about 26 percent of the remaining votes with just 74 percent spread between the four candidates overall.

Meanwhile, Babauta needs to gain at least 270 votes out of the 480 remaining votes to meet Fitial’s percentage and exceed it by one vote. This is 56 percent of the remaining votes with just 44 percent of the remaining votes spread between the candidates.

In order to win, Hofschneider and Babauta will have to match each additional vote that Fitial receives over the base result, McNinch said.

Absentee voters

Commonwealth Election Commission data show that 1,527 absentee voting packets have been mailed out, while an additional 75 packets have been issued personally to voters.

There are 567 absentee voters from Precinct 1, where Hofschneider has posted his biggest lead during the count of poll votes.

Precinct 2 has 53 absentee voters; Precinct 3 has 297; and Precinct 4 has 248 absentee voters.

A total 161 absentee voters have registered on Tinian. Rota has 276 absentee voters.