Tsunami tragedy highlights needs of the CNMI

The Babauta administration underscored the need to install early warning devices and implement a volcano hazards assessment in the Northern Islands, citing the possibility that the volcanic eruption on Anatahan might result in tsunamis.

Emergency Management Office director Rudolfo Pua said that the administration is not taking the matter lightly, as Anatahan’s rumbling volcano continue to spew pyroclastic rocks that have diameters of about a meter and over.

Ash plume from the volcano’s crater extends to about 370 nautical miles but remains below an altitude of 18,000 feet, based on a joint report by the EMO and the U.S. Geological Survey.

As of yesterday, though, Pua said the wind was blowing southwesterly but no ashfall was reported on Saipan, which is located about 120 kilometers south of Anatahan.

“The governor is not taking this matter lightly. He is concerned about the safety of the CNMI people and its guests,” Pua said. “There is a need for the CNMI to implement this plan [volcano hazards assessment and early warning system].”

Although he allayed fears over the possible occurrence of tsunamis, Pua said the eruptions might result in such events if they become violent and send landslides to the sea. “Water displacement causes tsunami,” Pua said.

Anatahan’s volcano is 2,585 ft. above sea level.

Pua recalled that, when the volcano first erupted on May 10, 2003, the event would not have been detected on Saipan had it not been for a scientific expedition in the Northern Islands that happened to pass by the seas off Anatahan. Fortunately, he said, Anatahan residents were on Saipan at that time to get relief supplies following the onslaught of supertyphoon Pongsona in December 2002. Subsequently, the EMO and the USGS had to install seismic stations on the island and on nearby Saruigan island.

“The governor would want to have the early warning system in place and the volcano hazards assessment implemented immediately because, in the absence of these, it’s very difficult for the government to make policies and decisions in the Northern Islands in terms of development and the people’s safety,” Pua said.

“We are in the dark. We are deaf and blind. That affects the safety of the CNMI people, its guests, the airline industry, and even the military,” he added.

There are nine active volcanoes in the Northern Marianas, according to the USGS. In the seas off Maug island, the second northernmost island in the Northern Marianas, federal and local scientists who were part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Oscar Elton Sette expedition sometime in September 2003 discovered a submerged volcanic crater that was showing signs of activity.

Marine monitoring conducted on the island showed that volcanic vents are releasing water that was over 100-degrees Fahrenheit. Gas emissions were also prevalent in the waters through gas bubbles.

An early warning system would help the CNMI government predict when volcanic eruptions might erupt months before they happen, Pua said.

According to James E. Quick, PhD., a veteran igneous petrologist and program coordinator of the USGS’ Volcano Hazards Program, monitoring the nine active volcanoes in the Northern Marianas and assessing their hazards would cost about $1.9 million per year for the first three years, $1.2 million in the fourth year, and approximately $500,000 per year eventually.

The USGS’ Volcano Hazards Program, however, has no funds for the plan. The CNMI government has been working on obtaining federal appropriation to implement the plan.

After the USGS and the EMO completed the plan in June last year, Pua said he and other government representatives met with the appropriation committees of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in Washington D.C.

The administration also sought help from the Department of the Interior and Washington Rep. Pete A. Tenorio, who recently told Rep. Dan Young, chair of the U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, about the need for funds for a reliable volcanic activity monitoring system in the CNMI.

The governor’s staff also met with that committee in November 2004, and submitted documents that show support for the plan from various sectors. Pua added that the governor had also asked the support of airlines associations and the Boeing company.

With some 25,000 flights flying over CNMI airspace in a year, USGS’ Quick said the islands’ volcanoes pose great risk to air traffic.

“Within just a small area of airspace immediately surrounding the Mariana islands, there are approximately 25,000 large commercial passenger flights per year, and more than 1 million flights of large commercial aircraft transit from Asia to Australia and New Zealand, passing through airspace potentially affected by eruptions in the Marianas,” according to a study conducted by Quick and other USGS experts.

According to Quick, volcanic ash threaten jets and aircraft in the air, as they form deposits in engines, restrict airflow, and clog fuel nozzles. Minute particles of volcanic ash also contaminate aircraft’s ventilation, lubrication, hydraulic and electronic systems. They cause erosion and pitting of leading edges of windshields and landing lights, as well as erosion of compressor blades.

From 1944 to 2003, there were at least 110 documented instances of airports closed or operations disrupted in 75 cities and military bases in 20 countries due to volcanic hazards, noted Quick.