Economic zits and Chia Posh

Saipan’s economy continues to suck eggs, but it looks like the U.S. economy is poaching a few fortunes, too. The dreaded “L” word–Layoff–is beginning to surface, and the layoff Grinch has reared his ugly head in time for Christmas.

Aetna, Gillette, and General Motors are the latest big companies to scale back on jobs. And, of course, employment in the dot.com world is tumbling faster than a Middle road pedestrians on a boozy government payday.

And jobs aren’t the only things going bye-bye. The entire Oldsmobile division of General Motors is getting buried in the rubble of America’s slackening economy. That’s right: Oldsmobile will soon cease to exist, no kidding. Though it’s an economic bummer, this doesn’t really bother me, given that I’m a devout Ford man.

What does bother me is that my pals in the suitcase squad, after having been financially bled in Saipan, are going to have to face the specter of Uncle Sam’s economy turning anemic. What a nasty double whammy for these guys.

Now, I guess I should mention the stock market, particularly now that the NASDAQ is getting clobbered, but I’ve found stocks an insane gig lately. When the Bangladeshi ditch diggers start griping about margin calls from their brokers, it’s a safe bet that the market is as crazy as a rat in a coffee can.

And, speaking of crazy, just what are the soccer moms, dot.com yuppies, and all the rest of these consuming consumers going to do if the good times stop rolling? Some of these folks are gonna’ get wiped out. After all, somebody had to pay insanely inflated prices for those stucco on stick houses in California, which, per square foot, probably are costing more than prime executive toilet space in the Ginza. An economic hiccup will surely pop this bubble like a fat, ripe zit.

And, probably the best indicator of all, the levels of hubris I’ve sensed from my yuppie pals in the Real World were rolling so strong that I thought they were all sniffing nitrous oxide. These guys were spending more on floor tiles and designer neckties than most of us spend on, well, everything added up. Such froth can only signal financial vulnerability, because buying sprees are usually floated by debt. Which is fine if you keep making more and more money every year, but if the good times stop rolling, you get a face full of that old rock and roll wisdom: “Sometimes you’re the windshield, sometimes you’re the bug.”

There are, of course, Serious and Weighty consequences of all of this stuff for the Commonwealth, but Christmastime is no time to be overly ponderous. August, now that’s a time for ponderous, and maybe even cranky. But December–no way. I’m too busy kissing Santa’s butt so I’ll get that Posh Spice Chia Pet that I’ve been wanting. As for the United States, this Christmas will still be a prosperous one, but next year’s outlook is getting mighty murky.

Stephens is an economist with Stephens Corporation, a professional organization in the NMI. His column appears three times a week: Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Mr. Stephens can be contacted via the following e-mail address: ed4Saipan@yahoo.com.