Next year? More of the same.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t offer up my obligatory New Year’s prediction for the CNMI economy, so I fired up my crystal ball. I gazed into it, and it said:

“1999, all over again.”

And, basically, it makes sense.

The CNMI never seemed to grasp the difference between internal (known as “endogenous” in economic parlance) and external (or “exogenous”) economic forces. A well managed economy is one in which local policy makes endogenous forces as sound as possible, because you can’t influence what happens in the cold, cruel, outside world.

In other words, a good sailor tends his sails, the better to deal with the wind—which he has no influence over.

A lousy sailor spends his time cursing and blaming the seas and the wind. He’ll wreck his ship, but he’ll have no shortage of excuses for his mishap.

And we’ve had plenty of choppy seas here. Japan and Korea’s woes financial woes, coupled with strains with Uncle Sam and the unhappy prospects therein, are valid points to analyze. But pointing the collective finger at these factors doesn’t relieve us of the onus of managing our affairs properly here on our fair shores.

I like it here, but I’m not a paid booster or spokesman for the place, and when overseas investors are eyeing projects here, they get from me exactly what they want: a valid and realistic assessment of the expected risks and rewards of their endeavors. And, in most cases, it’s become a no-brainer: the risks are far higher than the rewards are.

Investors aren’t scared of risks—they profit off of taking risks. But the higher the risks are, the higher the potential rewards must be. That’s basic.

On a personal note, I think it’s a shame for the Commonwealth to have backed itself into such a bleak corner. This is a great place to live, and has a lot of raw potential. But we’ve slid into international disrepute, and the trend is merely accelerating.

The CNMI is heading straight for economic also-ran status. Japan is sort of flat now, Korea, by contrast, is booming big time, and we’ll see better tourism activity in the coming year. But that’s all we’ll see. I don’t envision any new hotels being built, any new industries taking root, any real change in the economic base, any influx of investment funds. We’ll actually see more bankruptcies and more businesses throwing in the towel.

On the “count your blessings” side of the coin, the CNMI did manage to escape a full blown fiscal meltdown, and we have to give some folks on Capital Hill credit for managing those things so well in such tough times.

In the bigger picture, though, the economic tune for next year will sound a lot like last year’s.