Attrition at the crossroads

They’re at it again in the U.S. Congress, with Sen. Frank Murkowski stepping up to the plate to take another swing at the CNMI’s labor and immigration matters.

What I find of interest isn’t the feds’ actions, but our attitude here when it comes to fighting what’s shaping up to be a chronic battle. It smells of a war of attrition. I’ve seen the flack flying over the three years I’ve lived here, and I’m sure these battles will keep popping up.

What’s always confused me is how the Commonwealth can’t understand that unless it puts together a solid economy, it’s just a matter of time before the “federalization” troops can strike a knock out blow. We’ve got less ammo than they do, financially speaking, and we’ve got less by the day (and, if you haven’t noticed, their booming economy is providing them with more).

In fact, if I was advising the feds, I’d tell them if they want to take over the CNMI, all they have to do is wait for the first payless payday here. Then, march in with promises of free money (not much money, mind you, but just enough). If the Commonwealth doesn’t get more serious about solid economic policy (and, as far as I know, there are no economists involved in such policy here now), it’s going to wind up taking a leap from being a developing economy to becoming yet another U.S. welfare outpost.

Oh, but that would cost the U.S. alot, right? I doubt it. Assume they just erased the entire economy. All aliens go home. 25,000 people who are permanent residents here become eligible for, say, $6,000 a year in whatever handouts the feds give out. Cost:$150 million per year. A cheap price to pay for access to this strategic range of islands.

It looks to me like the only card that will play to the U.S. point of view is to be able to demonstrate that the Commonwealth has created a free-market success story. That’s something many Americans can relate to and would support. Thus far, the Commonwealth has been such a success.

But we’re a fork in the road now, and we can’t coast too long on the success of the past. When businessmen are getting spooked and leaving the islands, when growing mountains of red tape inspire managers and entrepreneurs to leave for more enlightened markets, when the suitcase squad buys one-way tickets home-nursing a sense of disgust, generally-you’ve got the makings of a crisis on your hands.

The enemies of the CNMI would like nothing more than to see us shoot ourselves in the economic foot. Believe me, the social foot would soon follow. Both feet are starting a death-dance-have you noticed all the violent crime lately? Where do you think the trend is heading?

It’s quite an exciting time for an economist. Not that I give the local government advice; I’ve offered, they don’t want it. That’s fine with me. Merely being able to record and report on the CNMI’s economic behavior at this junction is an adventure. I’ve never seen a place with so much potential, and never seen a place so close to committing total economic suicide.