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Heavy rain possible until tomorrow; potential flash flooding
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Posted on Jun 26 2023
Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible in the Marianas until tomorrow, Tuesday, due to monsoon trough in the Federated States of Micronesia, according to National Weather Service data.
Based on the information received from the NWS in Guam and compiled at the CNMI Emergency Operations Center State Warning Point, a weak tropical disturbance is projected to develop along the eastern periphery of the monsoon trough in Chuuk State in the coming days. The monsoon trough is expected to shift northward and is expected to take this disturbance north and across the Marianas. Both deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in much better agreement on the approximate location of a building convergence zone, and the time of arrival of the heaviest showers, which is currently projected to be late Sunday to Monday night time frame.
Rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain due to lack of visible feature on satellite to prognose; however, vertical environmental profiles in the soundings and model time heights indicate amounts between 2 and 4 inches with locally heavier amounts in excess of 5 inches possible through Tuesday.
As the evolution of this feature changes significantly with the last few forecast cycles, possibility remains for an elevation to a flood watch for the Marianas in the next day or two, if conditions warrant.
Localized flooding is possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas, while flash flooding will be possible in areas of heaviest rainfall, especially near steep terrain. Residents of the Marianas need to closely monitor this developing situation as hydrologic watches, advisories and warnings could be issued this weekend. If living near streams and rivers, prepare to move items away from stream and river banks. Make sure storm drains nearby are not clogged, especially in low-lying areas.
This outlook will be updated over the next few days with additional information, or cancelled if the situation changes.
The public is advised that localized flooding will be possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Ensure nearby storm drains are not clogged, especially for low-lying or flood-prone areas. (Saipan Tribune)
