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1 to 2 typhoons possible this year
1 or more severe tropical storms possible
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Posted on Jun 11 2019
The National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, projects a 50-percent chance of a more active-than-normal season for this year’s typhoon season.
According to a prediction report from the NWS, they predict that this year’s typhoon season could be similar to last year’s, which saw Tinian and Saipan ravaged by Super Typhoon Yutu in October and Rota crippled by Typhoon Mangkhut in September.
“Our predictions for the overall risk of a tropical cyclone affecting Rota, Tinian, or Saipan are similar to those for 2018,” the NWS report stated.
The report also stated that there is, however, a 40-percent chance of a normal season and a 10-percent chance of a less active season.
Currently, the Marianas has transitioned into the waning stages of a weak El Niño and most climate forecast models suggest the Marianas will remain in an El Niño state, either weak or moderate, until the end of the year.
El Niño is defined as an irregularly occurring and complex series of climatic changes affecting the Pacific region.
In 2018, the Pacific region experienced 36 tropical cyclones. Many of the tropical depressions from last year formed across Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and a couple in the Marshall Islands, while the major typhoons occurred near the Marianas and over the Philippine Sea to the west.
The most notorious storms of last year, according to NWS, were Super Typhoon Yutu and Typhoon Mangkhut, which both directly impacted the CNMI.
NWS predicts more tropical cyclone activity than in 2016 and 2017, but about the same activity as in 2018; however, the predictions could change later in the year.
The predictions, although specifically focused on the Marianas, may also affect neighboring islands so islands across Micronesia should expect a season similar to 2018.
