Meteorologist says only 15 pct chance strong typhoon hits CNMI this year

National Weather Service-Forecast Office Guam warning coordination meteorologist Charles “Chip” Guard poses with participants during the start yesterday of the two-day Annual NWS Tropical Cyclone, Disaster Preparedness, and Climate Workshop at the Emergency Operations Center on Capital Hill. (Ferdie de la Torre)

There is only a 15 percent chance that a strong typhoon will hit the CNMI this year, according to National Weather Service-Forecast Office Guam warning coordination meteorologist Charles “Chip” Guard yesterday.

In an interview, Guard said this year looks like there is about a 50 percent chance for the CNMI of getting a severe tropical storm.

“That’s not a typhoon,” said Guard, adding that maybe there is a 25 percent chance of getting a minimal typhoon.

“If we have four years exactly like this year, one of those four years we get a minimal typhoon,” the meteorologist said.

Guard is conducting a two-day annual National Weather Service Tropical Cyclone, Disaster Preparedness, and Climate Workshop that kicked off yesterday at the Emergency Operations Center in Capital Hill.

Guard said although it’s good news, the CNMI should be ready because it is not certain which one of those four years the Commonwealth would get hit.

He said maybe every seven to eight years, the CNMI might get strong typhoons.

“We expect less activity in La Nina year and more activity in El Nino years. We’re kind in a year we’re bordering on El Nino and neutral,” Guard said.

He said there is a good chance the CNMI won’t get hit this year.

Guard said the Marianas is in the part of the world where it can get a typhoon in any month of the year.

“There is a lot of uncertainties associated. We don’t know if there is gonna be a direct hit. We don’t know exactly how strong it’s gonna be,” he said.

Guard said for example, Typhoon Soudelor was rapidly intensifying as it came ashore.

“We didn’t have deaths, not too many injuries. People for the most part were prepared. We have a good system set up and people were pretty well prepared,” he said.

With respect to the two-day training, Guard said the workshop really covers just about everything that is hazards both from the atmosphere and the oceans.

“We are talking about typhoons. We are talking about rip currents. We are talking about the typhoon program that we have, the products that we put out, how those products should be used, the characteristics of typhoons,” he said.

Guard said he will also be talking about what causes the weather of the CNMI so people have some understanding of it.

“When they look at the satellite picture on the TV, they do know what’s going on,” he said.

Guard will also discuss, among other things, about tsunami, earthquakes as well as rip currents, which is the No.1 killer in the Mariana Islands.

Emergency Operations Center manager Joey Dela Cruz said the tropical cyclone disaster preparedness and climate workshop is an annual training that NWS Guam’s Guard brings in to the CNMI.

Dela Cruz said in the past they were focused on government employees or participants.

“This is the first year that I reach out and try to get majority of the participants from the private sector,” he said.

Dela Cruz said as they saw in Soudelor, the services from the private sector was much needed.

“So for them understanding the technical side of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone it’s only gonna better our partnership and relationship with the government and the private sector,” he said.